Pandemic crisis: Brazilian regions recovery status

Indicators give a perspective of how different Brazilian regions behaved throughout the pandemic.

Figure from FreePik.
Figure from FreePik.

The world is presently facing a coronavirus pandemic that has resulted in a high number of deaths in different countries. In the meantime, while vaccines are still being developed, the most effective way to protect yourself and others around you is by taking appropriate precautions and performing social distancing.

In Brazilian regions, governments took different actions to prevent spreading coronavirus, which severely affected the number of deaths. In this article, I will use indicators related to retail and recreating provided by Google Mobility Report to compare how these regions behaved throughout the pandemic. This indicator specifies the mobility trends for places such as restaurants, cafés, shopping centers, theme parks, museums, libraries, and cinemas. For more information, check the Google Documentation.

This study gives an early picture of whether the Brazilian economy is returning to pre-crisis levels. Besides, it can also be further used to evaluate the effect that social isolation has over the number of cases, since theoretically, as people stop going out, the number of cases will decrease.

Method and Results

It was used seven day moving average to create the figure below. The blue line represents the average of all the states from the same region and the grey lines represent each state.

Moving average (7 days) of Brazilian Regions considering retail and recreating.

From the figure shown above, many considerations can be made. For example, the South region achieved the higher indicator of social isolation towards retail and recreating (-75) throughout the pandemic, while the North region achieved the lower value (-64). Nowadays, the Southeast and the Northeast regions recovered 55% and 61% of loss, respectively, which suggests that the economy is returning to pre-crisis levels. Besides, the North and Midwest regions are the regions with less social isolation related to retail and recreating in the present, achieving -13 and -21 indices when compared to the baseline, respectively.

The code to generate the figure can be found in github. There are some comments and you can even reproduce the same result that I achieved by running it. Feel free to make any modifications or optimizations, and test different configurations!

Conclusion

In this article, we presented an interesting analysis related to social isolation in different Brazilian regions based on indicators provided by Google Mobility Report, where it can be seen that the economy is returning to pre-crisis levels in all regions. However, even though the coronavirus cases seem to be decreasing, we still must be cautious to avoid a second wave in Brazil.

I hope you have enjoyed reading it and that you may create similar figures using the code provided. Remember to follow the guidelines by taking appropriate precautions. Stay safe, wear a mask, and save lives!

References

Finantial Times

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